Following the Caribbean Development Bank’s Annual Media Conference, on Wednesday 24th February, Director of Economics at the CDB, Dr Justin Ram, told Radio Anguilla’s Information Officer, Felicia Hennis, that Anguilla’s economy is now in “recovery mode.”
Ms Hennis was among regional media practitioners who attended the CDB’s press conference in Barbados. She immediately sought an interview with Dr Ram following the media session.
“As you know, the onslaught of the financial crisis (in 2000 and 2009) actually led to a significant decline in output in Anguilla – in the region of about 25% of GDP,” he stated. “What we are seeing now is a real recovery on the way. Luckily, it seems like investment is starting to return to Anguilla – and now we’re hoping there’ll be a more stable policy environment as the resolution of the financial sector starts to be implemented and finally be resolved. We think that’s going to bring about stability to the overall policy environment within Anguilla.”
Dr Ram also zeroed in on the tourism sector which drives the economy. He said the authorities need to ensure that the tourism product is actually at a very high level.
He observed: “There is a need to ensure that the port is up to a good level so that the overall experience for passengers is quite good. Maybe, over the medium term, government will have to examine what will happen to the airport – whether to maintain it at its current level or whether its needs to be expanded to allow direct commercial flights from the Eastern Sea Board into Anguilla.”
The CDB Economist continued:
“We are seeing useful measures being touted by the Anguillian Government with respect to its expenditure and revenue collection measures. We believe that very soon any issues associated with the financial sector will be resolved very quickly. Once these things are in place the economy is well poised to be on a sustainable path.” He also mentioned that CDB officials will be visiting Anguilla and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union in a few weeks’ time.
Meanwhile during the general media conference, members of the regional press core were brought up to date on the state of the Caribbean economies.
“If we use the metric of economic growth, 13 of the 19 Borrowing Member Countries – (BMCs) should grow faster in 2016 than they did in 2015, but two of our stronger credits, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname, will experience negative growth in 2016,” Dr. Warren Smith, President of the CDB, explained. “Interestingly, all the services-dependent economies should grow, even if very marginally. This is a rebound from earlier
years after the Great Recession. The two BMCs whose economies are expected to contract are heavily commodity dependent and also represent a reversal of a trend which had emerged a few years ago.”
Dr. Smith added: “So one could conclude that Caribbean economies are in recovery mode and that would be a fair comment, except that it is occurring at a time of great uncertainty in what is emerging as a somewhat topsy-turvy external environment. These external threats include the possibility of economic weakening in Europe and North America at the same time that China’s growth rate is slowing as it addresses internal structural weaknesses. The threats also loom ominously in the shape of the correspondent bank de-risking crisis which portends challenges for the movement of money into and out of Caribbean economies. In addition to these is the ever present threat to economic and social infrastructure posed by natural hazards and climate change.”
The Caribbean Development Bank says joblessness within the region remains high. Many of the Borrowing Member Countries for which 2015 labour force data were available continued to experience double-digit rates of unemployment. In its overall assessment, the CDB points to a number of global uncertainties that will continue to impact the region.
The CDB is projecting that the region will grow by just 0.3% in 2016, but notes that this growth rate is insufficient to address employment, equality and poverty reduction issues. Higher rates of economic growth are needed, as well as other measures.
