Anguilla’s General Election is due by September 2025. This is in accordance with section 63 (3) of the Anguilla Constitution which provides that “the Governor shall dissolve the Assembly at the expiration of five years from the date when the Assembly first meets after any general election unless it has been sooner dissolved.” It is, however, widely expected that the Assembly will be dissolved not at the instance of the Governor but at the instance of the Premier, in accordance with section 63 (2) of the Constitution. Section 63 (2) provides that “the Governor, acting after consultation with the Premier, may at any time, by Proclamation published in the Official Gazette, dissolve the Assembly.” Despite the use of the phrase ‘acting after consultation’ it is generally understood that the Governor is guided by what the Premier indicates.
Following the dissolution of the House of Assembly the General Election must be held within two months of the dissolution of the House as provided by section 64 of the Constitution. In the normal course of things, it is expected that the Premier will determine the date the House is dissolved and the date by which the General Election must be held, in accordance with section 64 of the Constitution.
While many persons wonder when the General Election will be held, the Premier is the person who holds the answer. Will a look at history help us to determine the likely timing of the General Election? The following are the dates of General Elections held between 1976 and 2020.
15 March 1976
22 June 1981
9 March 1984
27 February 1989
16 March 1994
4 March 1999
3 March 2000
21 February 2005
15 February 2010
22 April 2015
29 June 2020
Historically, the first quarter of the year seems to be the preferred period in which to hold a General Election. Will this be the case in 2025? The June election in 2020 is seen as an anomaly stemming from the impact of Covid-19.
Some interesting reasons have been offered for the first quarter of the year being a favoured period for a General Election. It is at the height of the Tourist Season when most persons are fully employed and therefore it is felt they are likely to be viewing the incumbent government favourably. Certain American holidays occur during the first quarter of the year, which could serve to facilitate Anguillians desirous of returning home to vote. Additionally, consideration may be given to holding elections prior to Lent, as it is generally accepted that the behaviour often exhibited by politicians on the political trail is not reflective of Lent. Will Premier Webster, in consultation with his APM team, be motivated by any of these factors?
There is also a school of thought which suggests that incumbents may sometimes be motivated by the desire to remain in office for the maximum time available to them, so that they benefit from the public purse for as long as possible. Will this be a motivating factor for Premier Webster and his team?
Whatever the motivating factors may be, in accordance with the Constitution, the General Election must be held by September 2025.
