When we consider things we think “could never happen” – but then, they do, we may be thinking of “black swan” events. First cited in the first century by a Roman poet, Decimus Junius Juvenalis, he satirically compared finding a perfect wife to be as likely as finding a black swan (not indigenous to the world as they knew it). However, about 1600 years later, a Dutch explorer found just such graceful creatures in Australia. “The black swan thus came to be a metaphor for the reality that just because something has not happened does not mean that it cannot occur in the future.”1
Black Swan Events Since 1900…
Black swan events are defined as extremely rare with vast impact – but are often “explained” as inevitable in hindsight. Examples include the highly leveraged US stock market crash of 1929 that ushered in the Great Depression, the “Dot Com” bubble where overvalued tech stocks lost unimaginable value, and more recently, the fall of Lehman Brothers that triggered the global recession in 2007-8.2
Another swan many insisted could “never” fly was nesting behind recent US default threats in Congress. Deft debt negotiations in fact averted that disaster, and the US president signed the “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 two days before … the U.S. would run out of cash to pay its bills.”3 Let’s hope that swan gets lost.
And the Spanish Flu of 1918, the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster following a freak earthquake and tsunami, and the Coronavirus Pandemic that began in 2020 were such events resulting from natural causes, despite debates about a laboratory in China. Whereas people caused the “unthinkable” when World War I began following the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand; and beyond countless lives lost and families devastated at the time, terrorists flying planes into skyscrapers, the Pentagon, and a barren field on 9/11 (2001) was as unthinkable as the impact on every traveler and public event ever since.2
One marvelous example is the Internet2 and its incalculable changes to our lives, from instantaneous print, voice and video communications to collaborative advances in every discipline, to entertainment, infrastructure, and commerce. That said, artificial intelligence fears are emerging about reversing immeasurable gains from the world wide web to date. Yes. Another bird to watch.
Political and Legislative Black Swans
In US politics, generations of Americans thought the presidential election of anyone who looked like Barack Obama would “never” be possible. Until he was. And, millions of others thought anyone who behaved like his twice-impeached, now twice-indicted successor could likewise “never” be elected. Until he was.
Reversal of longstanding laws – or entire legislative structures – have also seemed as unlikely as black swans did to that early poet. Two such events occurred in the last few generations for American women. First, they won their right to privacy for healthcare in 1973, and then, lost that right in 2022, putting politicians, police and courtrooms between them and their doctors, as well as their economic equality in the workforce. A Supreme Court affirmation of “stare decisis” – or standing on precedent, led many to think that the privacy rights would “never” be withdrawn. Until they were.
Yet another snare of legislation in South Africa, where Apartheid and the devastating laws that oppressed generations seemed as if they would “never” be repealed. Until they were. By 1994, decades of activism and external economic pressures led to the presidential election of Nelson Mandela after 27 years in prison for opposing such laws. His ascension to power and noble decision to lead his devastated nation into the future with a commitment to healing and forgiveness was arguably another unimaginable black swan event.
Is the Reversal of Brexit a Black Swan Waiting to Fly?
Itself a black swan event as the first country to leave the EU, 23 June 2023 marked the 7th anniversary of the Great Britain vote to “exit” the European Union, or Brexit, which officially began in 2020 after years of negotiations and wrangling. Some may recall transformative – and socially questionable – promises that drove 52% of the vote to “leave”: promises for a robust economy, left fallow by a “cost of living crisis that means millions can no longer afford what they once regarded as the basics” and businesses facing untenable trade barriers threatening their ability to compete; promises to reduce the numbers of immigrants, which have increased, not fallen; and instead of enjoying the “glory” of economic and sovereign isolation, the UK government remains mired in amending or abandoning hundreds of laws and regulations, as well as intractable debates and issues surrounding Northern Ireland and Scotland.4
These cross-currents have swirled against the backdrop of the most ardent Brexit leader, Nigel Farage, admitting in a March 2023 televised interview that, “Brexit has failed”4 – and 55% of the public in Great Britain now say it was “wrong” to leave the EU; whereby 50% or more have consistently held such a view since July 2022.5 Notably, the ruling Conservative Party has been inextricably associated with Brexit and is facing an increasingly uncertain general election by January 2025. Sound familiar?
Black Swans Swimming around Anguilla
The Brexit referendum passed within 4 percentage points: 52:48%. In Anguilla, the AUF was ousted in 2020, receiving just 37% of the total votes cast. Including independent supporters, 63% of the votes expressed lost confidence in the AUF government, and specifically, they lost by a 21% margin of votes cast for the APM, which ran on a commitment to enact alternatives to GST. Whereas another 19% likely shared similar views with votes for independent candidates.6
After drowning for a year in economic oppression from forcing GST against our will, some have expressed cynicism and desperation as if “the British” somehow want to destroy our culture, prosperity and morale. As such, they cling to a drifting feather of hope for the repeal of GST, restoration of culturally accepted alternatives – and our civil rights! Freeing us from constant threat of its culturally humiliating atrocities in a confusion of regulations and capricious clauses for the Comptroller’s “satisfaction” and changes “convenient” to the Minister, for some, seems as unlikely as say, an orange seagull or a white Flamboyant tree.
So. If the British can muster the righteous will to respect the will and rights of the people, what may now seem as unlikely as a “black swan” in ancient Rome, the repeal of GST – and who knows, the reversal of Brexit, may be the next black swans to swim along. Never say never.
Withdraw GST assent – and pass a balanced budget bill. Now!
This article reflects cultural and economic issues raised on July 5, 2021, at the House Select Committee on GST Public Hearing. 1https://www.britannica.com/topic/black-swan-event;2https://knowww.eu/nodes/5bd586ef165a51814af73c93; 3https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-bill-00100093; 4https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/19/brexit-failed-blame-remoaner-elite-refugees;5https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/;6https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Anguillian_general_election.
