AcuWeather meteorologists report that conditions may become favourable to support tropical formation of storms over the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico, as early as May 20-25, noticeable ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season which officially spans June 1- November 30.
Another above-average 2022 hurricane season is forecast for the Atlantic due largely to the “lingering effects of La Nina, in which lingering cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific result in vast stretches of low wind shear over the Atlantic basin”.
Key conditions that set the stage for storm formation are minimal amounts of wind shear and warm ocean water temperatures.
From a climatological standpoint, the wind shear forecast is relatively low in this zone around the middle of May, and the ocean water temperature ranges from the low to mid-80’s – well above the minimum threshold of 77 degrees for tropical storm development, making the region, from the Caribbean to the southern Gulf, a prime area to watch heading into June.
Although May hurricanes are very rare, it does not hurt for us in Anguilla to be prepared. This will require the collective efforts of government agencies, commercial property owners and managers, personal property owners and residents, to embark on an “island-wide clean-up and preparedness campaign” to mitigate the impact of potential hurricane damage to life and property.
