Dear Editor
The decision to “cautiously” open the borders means that the coronavirus will be imported to Anguilla. That fact is unavoidable and undeniable. COVID infection is a pure statistical risk.
The more tourists arrive the higher the risk.
That risk factor cannot be controlled or mitigated. The decision to open the borders is defended, repeatedly, by those responsible as “possible to achieve safety.” It is not. Here is why:
The plans and procedures proposed, while well-meaning, are driven by emotional factors such as economic desperation, hope and wishful thinking. The public information released seems aimed more at justification of the decision rather than logic and objective scientific calculation of the risk factors.
One only has to examine the recent results of the disastrous reopening efforts of St. Croix, St. Thomas and other Caribbean neighbours to predict failure in Anguilla.
Consider the following facts:
Relying on a negative COVID test as a prerequisite ignores several scientific facts.
1. False negative results are as high as 30% depending on the test.
2. An individual can test negative, be asymptomatic and still be a carrier. What is the plan if a tourist tests positive on arrival or at the end of the quarantine period?
3. A negative COVID test is only valid for that point in time. A tourist can test negative and arrive 72 hours later as a carrier. This was dramatically documented during the opening of St. Croix and the US Virgin Islands in July.
4. The risk of COVID being imported now is HIGHER than when the borders were closed on March 22. The timing of the decision to “reopen” ignores the current changes in infection rates. The USA experienced a 15% increase in COVID in September alone. As of October 6, 32 States and Puerto Rico are experiencing rising rates of infection. The chances of tourists being infected are greater today than the day the borders were closed on March 22.
5. When the borders closed on March 22, St.Maarten/St. Martin reported a total of 6 cases and no deaths. As of October 6, there are 80 active cases, 572 recovered and 30 deaths. Again, HIGHER risk now than then. Therefore travel through the SXM airport, and then by ferry to Anguilla is another COVID exposure risk.
Over one-third of Anguilla’s population is over 64. Diabetes and hypertension rates are high. These vulnerable people are at 5 times greater risk of death by COVID.
All medical facilities and staff combined on Anguilla are not adequate or equipped to respond to a surge of cases requiring respiratory support. How many cases in a single day would overwhelm the resources?
Anguilla cannot have the resources necessary to test hotel workers, taxi drivers and other Anguillians coming into contact with tourists. Where would workers go to quarantine if testing positive?
Anguilla does not have the capacity of trained personnel to monitor and track hundreds – let alone thousands – of tourists.
Conclusion:
Once COVID arrives it will spread quickly and overwhelm the local capacity. People will get ill and some will die. Many of us fear that if Nov.1 is the opening, then December will see the virus spreading, and the borders will need to close by January.
I urge the decision-makers to re-evaluate these concerns and respond with science-based solutions.
Lives depend on it!
Realistic Resident
