In the biggest rejection of government in the House of Commons in modern history, on Tuesday night January 15, the UK government lost support for their proposed Withdrawal Agreement through which it had intended the UK to leave the European Union (Brexit) by a vote of 202 FOR, and 432 AGAINST, a staggering 230 vote differential! The sheer magnitude of this went to the very heart of government that is now subject to a vote of no confidence tabled by the Labour Party this evening. This will be voted on at 7pm, (GMT) tomorrow night. If the government loses that vote of no confidence, a general election will be triggered.
The utter complete turmoil in UK politics is set against a strict timetable dictated by the Article 50 Agreement entered between the UK and EU that instigated the entire withdrawal process in response to a referendum held in the UK in 2016 on its membership of the union. This requires the UK to leave the EU on the 29th March 2019, together with Anguilla that has an associated relationship with the EU through which it has benefited for many years. The EU has been Anguilla’s most significant sources of aid for capital development for some considerable time. Therefore, once the committed EU funding ends in 2020, the island will have to look to the UK for assistance at a time where there is currently no readily available alternative funding from the UK to which Anguilla would be entitled. Although the UK government has acknowledged the need to address this funding gap, there remains concern as to whether any UK funding will be on terms similar to those of the EU that respects the democratically derived priorities of the island’s government and does not seek to impose those of the sovereign state. It is also hoped that the soft arrangements for the movement of goods, services and people as between Anguilla and neighbouring EU related islands will not suffer, whether by means of the introduction of new measures on the part of their European neighbours or by virtue of political uncertainty in the aftermath of Brexit. Membership of the EU Overseas Countries and Territories Association, which is linked to and heavily funded by the union, of which Anguilla is also a member may similarly terminate.
Prime Minister, Theresa May, has been a staunch supporter of the British Overseas Territories, in the run up to Brexit and in response to Hurricane Irma, and Anguilla has benefitted from the respect and assistance she has provided during what has proved to be some of the island’s most challenging years in recent history. Moreover, as the Member of Parliament for Maidenhead, it is
highly likely that the PM has a significant number of Anguillians within her own parliamentary constituency. Having worked hard to improve the comprehension of the island’s needs and way of life, we now hope that the following phases of the Brexit negotiations in which the nature of Anguilla’s future relationship with the EU and its related interests in the Caribbean, as a nation that shares a direct border with an Outer Most Region of the EU, French St Martin, and a Dutch country, Sint Maarten, will have its interests duly safeguarded. In so doing, it was intended that this would protect Anguilla’s symbiotic relationship with its sister island, St Martin, thereby demonstrating the ‘deep and special relationship’ that exists within the European family of nations, a key consideration of the Prime Minister. Whether these phases will now remain intact remains to be seen.
There is, of course a route through which the current debacle may be successfully navigated that could be fuelled by the Prime Minister’s steadfast and determined approach to this trying issue. Assuming the affiliation and support of the Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland holds fast, as expressed this evening, the vote of no confidence tabled by the Labour Party, and supported by many other opposition parties, may prove unsuccessful. This would enable the Prime Minister to return to the EU and demand a new set of terms that could ensure a no deal Brexit could be avoided in a timely manner on the premise that a no deal would be economically harmful for key members of the EU, such as Germany with whom the UK conducts a significant level of trade. However, the PM would have to garner cross-party support in the UK for the terms of a new withdrawal agreement to avoid yet another backlash. This may prove the most attractive course of action for the EU, as they too have parliamentary elections in May 2019 and so time is of the essence in resolving this impasse.
If successful, Mrs May would have then secured victory, and could avoid a leadership challenge, the risk of which has already been substantially reduced as the Conservative Party have already held their own vote of no confidence in her leadership which she won several days ago, meaning she is safe in her post as PM for one year, unless she chooses or is encouraged to resign.
The UK is responsible for the conduct of external affairs under the current constitution and so must conduct Brexit negotiations on behalf of the territory. If the UK ‘crashes out’ of the EU without a deal and harm is caused to Anguilla arguably it would be reasonable for the island to look to the UK for support should the need arise. Although this has been acknowledged by the UK it has yet to be confirmed. We may therefore only hope that a rational Brexit is undertaken despite the drama of recent days, and that the political demands within the UK do not render Anguilla and its fellow British Overseas Territories vulnerable to collateral damage.
Mrs Blondel Cluff CBE
Representative of the Government of Anguilla to the UK and EU
and
Special Adviser to the Chief Minister
– Press Release
