For a long time now there has been speculation as to the date of the next general election. Last week the Chief Minister, Mr. Hubert Hughes, indicated that it was “his secret”. Indeed it is his secret — if he is able to keep it to himself. As we all know, in Anguilla the only way you can keep a secret is if you tell it to absolutely nobody. He told us about that secret at a time when he was revealing the worst kept secret in Anguilla, namely, that Dr. Ellis Lorenzo Webster would be named the new leader of the Anguilla United Movement. I have absolutely no doubt that as time progresses even this new secret will suffer a similar fate. And it will not be long now.
There, are however, a number of facts that are not secrets but will impact the Chief Minister’s ability to take advantage of his secret. Here are some of the most glaring ones:-
• The Government is concerned that it has not done anything over the last five years to make a strong case for another term in office.
• The Government is scrambling to sign new MoU’s with developers who don’t even own the land in question — simply to give the impression that there are projects “in the pipeline” for the future.
• The Government has not been able to create a stable environment among the agencies that manage our main industry to the extent that we have had five Chairpersons of the Tourist Board in the last five years, and there is confusion as to how and by whom our marketing and promotion is done overseas.
• The Government has not developed a good working relationship with local and foreign investors in the private sector.
• The Government has made absolutely no progress in resolving the issues on Cap Juluca, our flagship tourism property, to the extent that they seem to have “thrown their hands in the air” for lack of a solution.
• The Government has been unable to satisfy the people that it has their interests at heart in the matter of the indigenous banks.
• The Government has been unable to adequately address the issues it created in water production and distribution.
• The Government has adopted a confrontational approach in this period of challenge – rather than building partnerships and alliances so as to deal with critical issues affecting the economy at this time.
• The Government has been blaming everyone else for its inability to deliver on the promises it made to the people of Anguilla almost five years ago, and the Chief Minister has himself admitted that the country is heading towards becoming a “failed state”.
Please note that this list is not exhaustive. It is intended to show that even though the Chief Minister may have the benefit of the secret date for the elections — that advantage cannot help him in the face of the real issues his party must face in the upcoming election. That fact is further exacerbated by the choice of a leader who cannot adequately defend such a record of failure by simply claiming that he has the experience to do better. With all the best will in the world it will be an uphill battle for Dr. Webster to convince the electorate that he, without any experience or record in Government, can make a difference. In addition, there are serious questions as to whether he has the full support of the other AUM candidates who have themselves been jockeying for his position for many years. It seems clear that the fanfare at the Robert Harrigan Jetty in Island Harbour on November 15, 2014 was merely a “smoke and mirrors” act to give the impression that all is well with the AUM.
The Chief Minister keeps saying that he is “going down to the wire”. In other words, he will stay in office as long as he allowed by the Constitution. On the contrary his son, Haydn, the Parliamentary Secretary, tried to spread at the political debates on Monday that elections would be held within the next two weeks. Obviously, Haydn was playing one of his childish mind games, because Section 28 and 29 of Elections Act clearly requires that there must be at least seven clear days after dissolving the House of Assembly until Nomination Day followed by another seven clear days until Election Day. This suggests a clear minimum of sixteen days from the dissolution of the House to the day of election. Even without such a provision in the Elections Act, most Chief Ministers would be hard pressed to call elections too close to the Christmas season.
However, the decision by the Chief Minister to go down to the wire can be construed as a reluctance to relinquish power and/or a lack of confidence in the party’s chances of winning the upcoming election. A number of persons have suggested to me that, “Hubert will not give up a penny that he can derive from his position or his privilege to travel around the world at Government’s expense.” One person, in particular, put it to me this way: “Victor you a man, wedda you in Government or outta Government, always going some place! You ever see Hubert going any fudda den St. Martin when he outta Government?” Still another person remarked: “You gotta be joking — Hubert gon mek sure dat he collect enough money to pay Curtis!” Such cynicism is based on the fact that most people are of the view that this Government realizes that this is their “last hurrah” and will savour it down to the last drop.
I have a more practical reason for the Chief Minister ensuring that his Ministers and Members of the House get the full five years of their term. The Legislator’s Pensions Act requires that for a Member of the House of Assembly (which includes elected members; nominated members; and the Speaker) to qualify for pension at the age of 65 they must have served a full ten years. It therefore means that for any of these first time AUM members to qualify for pension they would have to be elected or nominated for three terms if they do not put in a full five years now. As much as the AUM has been criticizing past Minister’s right to a pension even after twenty-five years — they indeed have their eye on that security.
It has been a long haul and a challenging one for the people of Anguilla over these last five years of incompetent leadership and excuses. Many persons are becoming impatient about elections but, as Curtis Richardson always admonishes us: “Soon the years will become months; the months will become weeks; the weeks will become days; and the days will become hours and so on…” Indeed Election is just around the corner —- secret or no secret it must come.
There are, however, some provisions within the Constitution that may bring some comfort to the impatience that attends our people even now. Section 63 (3) reads: “The Governor shall dissolve the Assembly at the expiration of five years from the date when the Assembly first meets after any general election unless it has been sooner dissolved”. Section 64 states: “There shall be a general election at such time within two months after every dissolution of the Assembly as the Governor shall by Proclamation appoint.”
In plain English, this House of Assembly first met on February 25, 2010. If the Chief Minister does not call for the House of Assembly to be dissolved by February 26, 2015, the Governor acting in her own discretion shall do so on that date. The other given is that once the House has been so dissolved a general election must be held within two months. So we just have to sit back and wait! I do not believe that it would reflect well on the Chief Minister or his party if he allows the Governor to exercise her obligation to dissolve the House on the last day. Neither would I expect him to expose his party to two months of rigorous campaigning during that period of “a lame-duck administration”. To my mind it would really show that they believe that this is their last hurrah.
By the way, it does seem that the Government is now preparing to pull out all the stops. At the debates on Monday Night I saw one of our Overseas Marketing Representatives in the audience enthusiastically cheering on the Parliamentary Secretary during his responses. Someone remarked: “Is she rebranding the AUM as well!” I would suggest that if she will indeed be rebranding the AUM, she should begin by working on changing its campaign strategy of lies and deceit.” It is no longer sexy!
